Module 01: Your Local Market in Dollars
Module 01 — Your Local Market in Dollars
You'll need: your current student count, your contact list size, your social following, and 2 minutes on a census site. Fill in every blue field below — the gold totals update as you type.
A. Your Warm Audience — your fastest enrollments
Your existing base and their families fill the first cycle faster than any ad. Light sword is a cross-training and family magnet — siblings, parents, and teens of current students sign up.
| A1 | Current active students | |
| A2 | Your email / contact listpast students, leads, inquiries | |
| A3 | Your social followingFB + IG + email combined, rough | |
| A4 | Warm-audience pool = A1 × 1.5each student ≈ themselves + a sibling/parent who'd try it |
B. Your Local Cold Reach — new families
Light sword pulls families who would never walk into a traditional dojo — the Star Wars generation, now parents.
| B1 | Population within ~10 miles | |
| B2 | Kids aged 5–17 in that radius = B1 × 0.16~16% of U.S. population | |
| B3 | Realistically reachable this quarter = B2 × 0.5%via one free intro event |
C. Your One-Cycle Enrollment — be honest, not optimistic
Most operators run their first cycle to 8–12 students. Don't model a packed room — model your first one.
| C1 | Your realistic first-cycle enrollmentblend a slice of warm (A4) + a few cold (B3). If unsure, use 10. |
D. Your Price
What will you charge for the 6-week cycle? Specialty cycles command a premium. Check what your camps, belt tests, or other programs run.
| D1 | Price per 6-week registrationtypical range $300–$500 | $ |
⭐ The Number
F. Your Second Revenue Line — saber resale
Optional, but it stacks on top of every cycle.
| F1 | Members who buy their own saber = C1 × 0.4~40% do | |
| F2 | Your margin per saber35–50% on resale | $ |
| F3 | Resale profit = F1 × F2 | $ |
G. The Decision
First-cycle net = E (cycle revenue) + F3 (saber profit) − your pilot cost
Now read your number against the threshold:
| Your Cycle Revenue (E) | What it means | Decision |
|---|---|---|
| Under ~$1,500 | Your reach or pricing is too thin this quarter. Re-check A–D — if it's still small, the market isn't there yet. | Refund within 14 days & walk. No harm done. |
| ~$1,500 – $3,000 | Solid. One cycle pays back the pilot several times over. | ✅ Run Cycle 1. |
| Over ~$3,000 | Strong market. Don't just run it — plan Cycle 2 and the membership conversion now. | ✅ Run Cycle 1 + scale. |
My decision:
H. What One Cycle Actually Becomes
One number is the start. Here's the trajectory it sits on:
| Per year (4 cycles in one timeslot) = E × 4 | $ |
- Plus saber resale, plus the members who convert to ongoing tuition after graduation, plus the second and third timeslots you add once it's proven.
- That's how a $497 test becomes a $30K–$60K/year program line — and, if you choose, the on-ramp to a full territorial license.
✅ Worked Example (so you can sanity-check yours)
A school with 120 students, a 2,000-person email list, in a town of 40,000.
- A4 warm pool: 120 × 1.5 = 180
- B2 kids in radius: 40,000 × 0.16 = 6,400 → B3 reachable: ~32
- C1 realistic first cycle: 12 students
- D1 price: $400
- E — THE NUMBER: 12 × $400 = $4,800 per cycle
- F: 5 sabers × $90 margin = $450
- First-cycle net: $4,800 + $450 − $497 = $4,753
- Decision: RUN CYCLE 1. Annual from one timeslot: $4,800 × 4 = $19,200 — before resale, conversions, or a second timeslot.
…and fill the room.
Projections only — your results depend on your market, pricing, and execution. The 14-day refund is exactly why you run this module first: you find out what your market is worth before you commit a dime to running it.